Global Economic Recovery - Are We There Yet?

Analysts are now revising upward their growth estimates, suggesting that the contraction of growth will be slightly less severe than was expected in February and March. However, they remain divided about whether the recovery will begin in the latter half of 2009 or be delayed until 2010. Consensus now suggests that the U.S. economy might bottom in H2 2009 and that Chinese acceleration in H2 2009 could be more pronounced. The outlook remains weak for Europe and Japan. However growth may be well below potential in 2010.

• IMF (July): The global economy is beginning to emerge from the recession "but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish." Economic growth may be 0.5 percentage points higher than projected in April 2009 or a 1.4% contraction in 2009 and 2.5% growth in 2010. Advanced economies will contract by 3.8% in 2009 - the U.S. by 2.4% (slightly less than in April), eurozone by 4.8%, Japan by 6%, UK by 4.3%, Canada by 2.3%. Eurozone will continue to contract in 2010 (0.3) while U.S. (0.6%) Canada (1.4), Japan (1.7%) and UK (0.2%) have below potential growth
• IMF: Emerging markets will slow sharply, growing by only 1.5% in 2009 before rebounding to 4.7% in 2010 (lower than the 6% in 2008). China to grow 7.5% in 2009 (8.5% in 2010) India 5.4% (6.5%). Asean to contract by 0.3% in 2009 before growing 3.7%) Latin America (-2.6), Eastern Europe (-5) and CIS (-5.8) to all face contractions in 2009 and sluggish growth in 2010 while the Middle east grows only 2%
• OECD (June): now expects a 4.1% contraction in the OECD area for 2009 (from the 4.3% expected in March) followed by a 0.7% growth in 2010. Thanks to a strong economic policy effort, OECD activity now looks to be approaching its nadir but the ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile. Recovery will take hold in a staggered manner across countries, reflecting differential policy stimulus and the force of headwinds from balance sheet vulnerabilities. A recovery appears to be in motion in most large non-OECD countries. The U.S. may bottom in H2 2009 and show marginally positive growth (as will Japan). Signs of impending recovery in the euro area are not yet as clearly visible and recovery may be sluggish.
• World Bank (June): Global GDP, after falling by a record 2.9% in 2009, is expected to recover by a modest 2.0% 2010 and by 3.2% in 2011 as banking sector consolidation, continuing negative wealth effects, elevated unemployment rates, and risk aversion are expected to weigh on demand throughout the forecast period. Despite higher growth rates in developing countries (given stronger underlying productivity and population growth), output will remain subdued. Given output losses to date—and because GDP will reach its potential growth rate only by 2011—the output gap (the gap between actual GDP and its potential), unemployment, and disinflationary pressures are projected to build over 2009 to 2011.
• UN (May): The world economy (World Global Product) is expected to shrink by 2.6% in 2009 after a nearly 4% annual increase in 2004-2007. Despite an expected recovery (1.2% growth) in 2010, risks are on the downside in 2010. World income per capita is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2009. In a more optimistic scenario, in which the financial and credit markets are healed in 2009, world GDP could rise 2.3% in 2010.
• In April's World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts that real global economic activity will contract by 1.3% in 2009 (1.8ppts lower than January's 0.5% growth prediction and 3ppts lower than in November 2008) before staging a modest recovery in 2010. In June (Reuters) it reportedly raised its forecast, suggesting global growth of 2.4% (up from 1.9% in 2010).
• Citigroup: Recessions — in terms of declining GDP — are ending, or soon should, in many countries, and our growth forecasts have edged up in recent months in many regions. with low inflation, most major countries can afford to keep low interest rates and extensive unconventional stimulus in place for an extended period with the RBA being among the first to hike rates. Global growth is likely to contract by 2% in 2009 before increasing by 2.9% in 2010 (based on PPP weights)
• Signs of stabilization―though scattered and sometimes contradictory―have begun to emerge. However, it is still too early to say that a sustained recovery is imminent. Global industrial production is currently down about 13% over last year, and while it may rise in the coming months due to inventory correction, the future remains murky. GDP forecasts for 2009 are still being marked down to reflect a weaker-than-expected start to the year.
• BNP: A deeper and sharper inventory reduction, stabilization of financial confidence and policy actions may have helped bring about green shoots earlier than expected, but they may be transitory given that the countries that have had a mercantilist growth strategy have not sufficiently stimulated domestic demand to offset the hurt from falling exports.
• RGE Monitor (April): Global economic activity is expected to contract by 1.9% in 2009. Advanced economies are expected to contract 4% in 2009. Japan and the eurozone will suffer the sharpest downturns. U.S. GDP will continue to contract, albeit at a slower pace throughout 2009, with negative growth in every quarter. Emerging markets will slow down sharply from the stellar growth rates of the past few years, with the BRIC economies growing less than half their 2008 pace of 7.5%.
• Morgan Stanley: Massive global policy action has moved us further away from a Great Depression-type scenario, and the risks of contracting output and structural deflation have waned. Global output will probably start growing in 3Q09, with G10 output growth turning positive in 4Q. Growth for 2009 as a whole will stay firmly in negative territory for all regions except Asia excluding Japan (AXJ) (where China and India will keep growth in positive territory).
• The global economy remains weak across the board, with no significant signs of improvement. Moreover, growth in 2010 is not a foregone conclusion.
• Goldman: Growth in the emerging world may likely keep the global economy from contracting in 2009, but risks are tilted to the downside. The global economy may expand by about 1% y/y in 2009, down from about 3.2% in 2008. Most of that growth will come from Brazil, Russia, India and China as domestic demand growth will offset declining exports. China alone may contribute more than 60% to global growth in 2009
• Citi: The nadir for growth in most regions remains late this year with 1.7% global growth expected, with shallow recoveries expected in 2010. The deepening global recession is creating greater challenges to policy making. Markets will face more challenges to growth after the recession due to a rise in the cost of financial inter-mediation and the potential to draw the wrong lessons from the crisis.
• The global financial crisis is bringing an end to the vendor financing model, whereby excess consumption in the US was financed by a savings glut in the emerging world. The market will ensure this adjustment finally happens.

p/s photos: Michelle Yip Shuen

Asia Rising - Part Three

"Dictatorship Has Given Asia an Advantage."

No. Autocracies, mainly in East Asia, may seem to have made their countries prosperous. The so-called dragon economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia under Suharto, and now China experienced their fastest growth under nondemocratic regimes. Frequent comparisons between China and India appear to support the view that a one-party state unencumbered by messy competitive politics can deliver economic goods better than a multiparty system tied down by too much democracy.

But Asia also has had many autocracies that have impoverished their countries-consider the tragic list of Burma, Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, Cambodia under the murderous Khmer Rouge, and the Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos. Even China is a mixed example. Before the Middle Kingdom emerged from self-imposed isolation and totalitarian rule in 1976, its economic growth was subpar. China under Mao also had the dubious distinction of producing the world's worst famine.

Even when you look at autocracies credited with economic success, you find two interesting facts. First, their economic performance improved when they became less brutal and allowed greater personal and economic freedoms. Second, the keys to their successes were sensible economic policies, such as conservative macroeconomic management, infrastructural investment, promotion of savings, and pushing exports. Dictatorship really has no magic formula for economic development.

Comparing a one-party state like China with a democracy such as India is not an easy intellectual exercise. Obviously, India has many weaknesses: widespread poverty, poor infrastructure, and minimal social services. China appears to have done much better in these areas. But appearances can be deceiving. Dictatorships are good at concealing the problems they create while democracy is good at advertising its defects.

So the autocratic advantage in Asia is, at best, an optical illusion.

"China Will Dominate Asia."

Not likely. China is on course to overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy this year. As the regional economic hub, China is now driving Asia's economic integration. Beijing's diplomatic influence is expanding as well, supposedly thanks to its newfound soft power. Even China's once antiquated military has acquired a full plethora of new weapons systems and significantly improved its ability to project force.

Although it is true that China will become Asia's strongest country by any measure, its rise has inherent limits. China is unlikely to dominate Asia in the sense that it replaces the United States as the region's peacekeeper and decisively influences other countries' foreign policies. Its economic growth is also by no means guaranteed. Restive secession-minded minorities (Tibetans and Uighurs) inhabit strategically important areas that constitute almost 30 percent of Chinese territory. Taiwan, which is unlikely to return to China's fold anytime soon, ties down substantial Chinese military resources. The ruling Chinese Communist Party, which views perpetuating its one-party state as more important than overseas expansionism, is not likely to be seduced by delusions of imperial grandeur.

China has formidable neighbors in Russia, India, and Japan that will fiercely resist any Chinese attempts to become the regional hegemon. Even Southeast Asia, where China appears to have reaped the most geopolitical gains in recent years, has been reluctant to fall into China's orbit completely. Nor would the United States simply capitulate in the face of a Chinese juggernaut.

For complex reasons, China's rise has inspired fear and unease, not enthusiasm, among Asians. Only 10 percent of Japanese, 21 percent of South Koreans, and 27 percent of Indonesians surveyed by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said they would be comfortable with China being the future leader of Asia.

So much for China's charm offensive.

p/s photos: Michelle Yip Shuen

Important View On Maids Issue

me said...

i take it mr salvatore doesn't have a maid, or at d very most, is living off d help of parent's maid. Is that a generalization? Perhaps in d same way that u r generalizing. by not letting them roam d streets on weekends, where they r susceptible 2 all imaginable n unimaginable temptations, we r not treating them as family? we r putting them in inhumane work environment? how fast n how easy we humans conclude. forget that we buy things 4 them when we go holiday, ignore d fact that we constantly worry abt whether they hv enuf 2 eat, nevermind all other good things that happen in each household, that we let them hv mth long holidays n laden them wth all sorts of gifts n gold when they go. Scratch that you schedule in some rest time 4 them n worry about over-working them even when u don’t. cancel out everything, simply becos of 1 thing; they don’t get 2 go out on weekends. apparently if you don't let them go out, they r worth less than a human being n it negates all other gd things you do 4 them n d ways you care 4 them? not being able to go out on weekend n suddenly they r being treated so worthless? is this too extreme a generalisation? 1 point agst 100 others. human relations r based on more than 1 factor. but we only see what we want 2 see, don’t we?

it is only a practical solution in d view of the current situation we r faced with, with no protection to employers. perhaps u have not faced with maids sneaking out in d middle of d night 2 hv affairs even when they r not suppose 2 go out? perhaps you hv not had things go missing, even when you hv left them in yr own living room, in broad day light. maybe maids sticking themselves with coathangers in toilet in toilet to abort themselves n then bleed uncontrollably. how abt maids having friendship network so extensive n friends/ ppl trying 2 get all types of info fr them, latching on 2 any n every male worker that enters d house in a most pathetic manner, EVEN when they r not suppose to go out. i could go on and on, but perhaps it's tiresome n u get the idea. the problems exist even with our pathetic supposedly-practical solution at d moment, can u imagine d mayhem if they r allowed 2 mix n roam d streets? they already do not show maturity in d way they handle themselves, r we suppose 2 give them more freedom? if it was your child behaving so irresponsibly, wld u let them do as they please n stay out? How then, are we not being equal? and don't forget, even if you treat them like family, they r not your flesh and blood and do not have to listen 2 your teachings, no matter how u stamp yr feet/nag.

talk about human equality all you want when it doesn't burn too close too home, but it makes u a hypocrite. there are maids out there that may plan 2 rob u when influenced, those that bring men over in yr bed when u r not home, those that wear yr clothes n hook up with any man. exaggerating? i only wish.

When they run off, agents n govt don't care. they hv contagious disease, despite medical check that they r supposed 2 hv undergone, they get pregnant, ntry to abort themselves, leaving themselves half dead n u hv 2 send them 2 hospital, they catch aids fr their roamings, they steal yr things, sell them, d agents n gvt don't care. we r seen as d evil party simply because this is our only choice of protection. When d law doesn’t protect us, don’t strip us further of our protection.

If it’s so tedious, don’t get a maid? Speak when you walk a mile in other’s shoe. Judge only when you have actually lived it.

2:04 PM

Salvatore_Dali said...

Mr. Me,

Thank you for yr posting from the other side. I think yr points are very valid, and if I had implied that "not giving the maid the day off" as being cruel or inhumane, I was wrong, I apologise.

I have had 3 maids before. So, not a hypocrite.

I guess I need to tweak my posting somewhat, but yr points are very valid, I must say. Thanks for sharing.

2:10 PM

p/s photo: Michelle Yip Shuen

Major Shareholder Sells 2% Stake In Parkson Retail Group

The controlling shareholder of Parkson Retail Group, a company that runs department stores across China, raised HK$644 million ($82.5 million) by selling part of its stake through a placement last night.

The deal consisted of 55 million shares, which were offered at a price between HK$11.71 and HK$12.07, representing a 2% to 5% discount to yesterday's closing price of HK$12.32. The price was fixed at the bottom, at HK$11.71, for the maximum 5% discount.

The seller is PRG Corporation, which is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Malaysia-based investment holding company Parkson Holdings Berhad. The deal represented 1.96% of the company's outstanding share capital, and will reduce Parkson Holdings' stake in Parkson to 51.6% from 53.58%.

The deal was covered within half an hour of the launch, with the final book made up of a mix of long-only and hedge funds. Although the book was filled with mostly Asian accounts, the deal was not priced until the US markets opened since there was one investor there that was keen to participate.

Parkson's share price has performed extremely well in the past couple of months: yesterday it was trading at double the February low of HK$6.12. In fact, yesterday's closing price is only half a dollar shy of the 52-week high of HK$12.79 from June 2 last year. The trading has been strong in the run up to the placement. Last Wednesday the shares gained 8.54%, followed by a further 5.94% on Friday. The Hong Kong stockmarket was closed last Thursday for the traditional dragon boat festival.

Although the share price has already risen steeply, one source said that investors still wanted to get involved because the sell-down was a good opportunity to get hold of a large chunk of a relatively illiquid stock. Only about 7 million to 8 million shares are traded every day, which is a small number for a $4.5 billion market-cap company.

Not everyone agrees that Parkson's shares are a good buy at the current price, however. A Citi research note released on May 21 has a "sell" recommendation on the stock. The bank raised its target price to HK$8, from HK$6, which is still 35% below yesterday's closing price.

"While we recognise Parkson's ability to tap into growing demand for fashion products among China's growing mid- to high-income consumers given its extensive national store network, we expect the slowdown in China's urban consumer spending for discretionary items to result in lower same store sale growth and margin pressure caused by the need for aggressive promotions," said the Citi analysts behind the note.

As a result, Citi said the next six to nine months will prove a tough environment for the stock, suggesting that its streak of outperformance is unsustainable.

The Citi note came out just after Parkson posted its first-quarter results, which showed a 14.9% improvement in net profit year-on-year to Rmb259 million ($38 million). The growth was primarily driven by a 9% rise in same store sales; new stores in Shanghai and Guizhou that were opened in 2008; and store acquisitions. Gross profit margins were "worse than expected", said the report. "Due to aggressive promotions at the store level to drive sales, overall [gross profit] margins on merchandise sales fell about 130bp [year-on-year]."

The company is one of China's only department store operators that has a truly national footprint with 32 directly owned stores in 26 cities.

More generally, the Hang Seng Index was up 3.95% yesterday to 18,888 points -- a level not seen since October last year. The market was buoyed by good economic news out of China relating to the manufacturing sector. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) recorded its third consecutive month of growth with a reading of 53.1 in May. The pace of growth was down ever so slightly from April's 53.5, but the most significant result of yesterday's PMI was that the prolonged drop in new export orders may have bottomed out. If export orders start to grow next month, it could signal the start of a recovery in international trade.

UBS was the sole bookrunner on the deal.

p/s photo: Michelle Yip Shuen