Market Commentary

Just looking at the markets today, some may not know what to make of it. Its like uncertain and the energy is misplaced and incoherent. Looking at the leaders board, Konsort has raced up the volume list, the stock that links it up is Pelikan. They have a mutual substantial shareholder, look it up. There are talks that Pelikan is being planned for a MBO or a private equity buyout (part of the reason why I highlighted it as a buy below RM1.00). Both should be OK for a swift trade. Not encouraged, only for smart and savvy traders who can move in and out quick by looking at volume and trends.

The other thing one can surmise from the gainers is that the realignment caused by the "new" FTSE-KLCI 30 index, which I have highlighted as "very important". The adjustment process favours certain stocks which takes out some of their free float capacity. Hence look for firm support for Tanjong and Commerce.

Some strategic accumulation can be seen in IOI Corp, which looks to me to be a good base building level, or some "substantial shareholder" thinking that this is the "right levels" to accumulate strongly. Fergetabout UEM Land or Tebrau, never liked their run up as the story is still wishy washy. No follow through, corporate plans all habuk, tarak api punya. I don't like many stocks now as I think markets do look tired, but if you point a gun to my head to force me to buy one stock to hold till rest of they year, I would probably say E&O.


p/s photos: Elanne Kong & Janice Man

B.S. & Genuine B.S.

This is another thing which pisses me off royally - i.e. how the media would twist the same fact/issue to suit the trend of the moment. Just read the recent headline from Bloomberg, following the recent sell down in shares globally.


"Oil, Gasoline Tumble as World Bank Predicts a Deeper Recession"


Weaker oil prices now seems to be a convenient excuse of a sell down. The same argument can be used to explain a market rally, in that weaker commodity prices would ensure a good non-inflationary environment suitable for growth.


The dampened economic outlook from the World Bank, a global lender based in Washington, also weighed on the prices of oil, metals, and other commodities. Those price drops in turn sent energy and metal producers' shares falling. The downbeat economic prediction provided a convenient excuse to sell or take profit on a market that had been on quite a tear for the last few weeks. Hence, for those in the media who taught that the World Bank's assessment was a CRITICAL point of view that led to the sell down... think again... the World Bank report is more like a convenient excuse to sell - there is a world of difference, and the mainstream media always seem to fail to pick these things up. Markets do not jump from one scenario to another within weeks, especially when economic data has been giving the same picture day in day out (green shoots and bottoming data).

Let's look at another example of the diatribe:

"Investors have gone from enjoying a string of better-than-expected economic data to trying to manage a list of worries about the economy. Stocks have lost ground several times in the last month on fears that rising interest rates and inflation would upend an economic recovery. Many analysts also say the relief that erupted in early March about the economy then led to outsize expectations for how quickly a recovery could occur. Other economic news has hit stocks since May. A disappointing government report last month on retail sales suggested the economy remained fragile, and the Federal Reserve reined in its expectations for how the economy will fare this year."

Events searching for reasons??? At any point in time, you can make a good argument for a bear or a bull market in place. We need to decipher between bullshit and genuine bullshit... one of them really tastes like shit.

p/s photos: Joe Chen Qiao En