Showing posts with label Deborah Priya Henry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Deborah Priya Henry. Show all posts

Most Successful Quant Hedge Funds Guy ... Ever



Degree from MIT; taught at Harvard. Worked as code breaker for Department of Defense during Vietnam. Founded Renaissance Technologies hedge fund firm 1982. Flagship Medallion fund averaging 34% annual returns since 1988. Most expensive fees in the business: 44% of profits, 5% of assets. Hires Ph.D.s instead of M.B.A.s; employees use computer modeling to find market inefficiencies. Launching fund for institutional investors that could handle $100 billion. Chairs Math for America; group donated $25 million last year to train 180 New York City math teachers.

James Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, a hedge fund, once said, “Luck plays a meaningful role in everyone’s lives.” Simons, a 71-year-old former university professor and a celebrated mathematician, has been blessed with the stuff. His flagship fund, Medallion, has had average annual gains of more than 35% for 20 years. Last year he was named the best-paid hedge-fund manager in America by Alpha, a hedge-fund magazine, reportedly earning $2.5 billion. Medallion gained 80% last year, and this year is up a further 12%. What makes this feat even more incredible is that Simons, one of the members of Alpha ’s inaugural Hedge Fund Hall of Fame (June 2008), charges a fat 5 percent management fee and 44 percent performance fee. To put it another way, Medallion — which has about $7 billion in assets — was up almost 160 percent before fees. Renaissance, which had $25 billion in total assets at the end of 2008, began this year with about $20 billion, presumably because of redemptions.

But Medallion is 98% employee owned and has not accepted new money for 15 years.

But, when rumors spread in 2005 that he was starting a new $100 billion hedge fund, people outside of his field also began to take notice of him. So to cater to outside investors, Renaissance has since 2005 marketed another “mega fund” known as the Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund (RIEF). The problem is that this has not proved anything like as successful as Medallion. Before its launch a small army of Renaissance PhDs—there are more than 70 on the payroll—back-tested RIEF’s performance with a simulated portfolio of $100 billion. From 1992 to 2005, its theoretical return was more than double that of the S&P 500, with less than two-thirds of the volatility. Investors queued up like Trekkies waiting for tickets to the new film.

In the first two years RIEF raised more than $1 billion a month. With new money coming in faster than it could be invested, monthly contributions were capped at $1.5 billion. By August 2007 the fund was managing almost $28 billion. But in 2008 RIEF lost 16% and investors withdrew $12 billion from Renaissance, which was the largest prime-brokerage client of both Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, two investment banks that failed. The downward spiral has continued this year, with RIEF losing 17% so far. It now has less than $10 billion of assets under management.


Jim Simons, businessman and founder of Math for America Credit: AP Photo/Jason DeCrow

Simons explains the lopsided returns by saying that the two funds approach investing in different ways. Medallion attempts to identify “predictive signals” in the market. Its high-powered computers are programmed to profit from split-second price distortions. RIEF moves much more slowly. Most positions are held for a year. Like Medallion, it uses computers to buy and sell stocks. The fund is designed to provide investors with smooth returns, the success of which is measured against the S&P 500.

It has, in fact, beaten the S&P 500 by almost 4% a year since inception, but it has also trailed behind an index of its peers. In general, computer-driven funds are becoming less popular with investors. But Simons is RIEF’s biggest investor, which gives him every reason to want to improve its performance. This could be the biggest lesson of the whole episode. Though investors may think they are seduced by the wizardry of Renaissance’s computer-driven models, what they are really betting on is the magic touch of the man himself.

Before becoming one of the top money managers in the world, Simons was a decorated mathematician. His work was primarily in geometry, peripherally related to the Poincare conjecture. Simons’ work on differential geometry, which he did in collaboration with S. S. Chern, has proved useful to string theorists.

Simons is also a generous philanthropist. He has donated significantly to math education, universities, and plans to give over $130 million in the next few years to the study of the genetic basis of autism. He also recently gave $13 million to keep the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory running when the Department of Energy announced a funding shortfall this past year.

In a recent interview: How do you select people for your company? We look for people who have demonstrated the ability to do first-class research. We are not a teaching organization. We are a research organization. We hire people to make mathematical models of the markets in which we invest. We look for people who have had success, typically academically, although some people come out of an industrial laboratory like IBM or Bell Labs. Most come out of academia. They’ve had three to five years, written a few papers, and already have some kind of reputation. First and foremost, we look for people capable of doing good science, on the research side, or they are excellent computer scientists in architecting good programs. We have very high standards and it works. Our business is wonderful as a result.

Simons in 2006 was around the #280 mark as the richest America according to Forbes with a net worth estimated at $2.8bn. In 2009, Forbes had him zooming up to #55 with a net worth of $8bn.
... btw ... why are the over 100 books on Warren Buffett and not even one on James Simons???!!


p/s photos: Deborah Priya Henry

Homecoming Of The Century



You could have written a wonderful book on the history of HSBC. How it got its start in Shanghai and then HK, then shooed out of China, then in HK for a while, got scared of 1997, shifted HQ to London, pissed off Beijing even more. Nurtured ties gradually over the last ten year, finally in Beijing's good books, and now planning a Shanghai listing. Its gotta be the homecoming of the century (as it started some 144 years ago in Shanghai and HK) for this storied Asian banking giant. Accepted in Asia as the strongest and most reliable, its brand equity is unparalleled in Asia. Has slowly made its mark in global markets but Asia is still its base.

China accounts for 8% of its business. Once it is listed in Shanghai, you can expect more approvals for HSBC to open more branches. The name still evokes a strong premium to most Chinese citizens. This could very well be the re-transformation for HSBC. Now, maybe they can truly revert to their original name and call themselves the Hongkong & Shanghai Bank.

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Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, vying to be the first foreign company to sell shares in Shanghai, hired China International Capital Corp. and Citic Securities Co. to advise on an offering, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Europe’s biggest bank by value may raise $5 billion in the second half of 2010, one of the people said, declining to be identified because talks are private. HSBC’s Hong Kong-based spokesman David Hall said advisers have been chosen, without elaborating.

A share sale may help HSBC, founded in Hong Kong and Shanghai 144 years ago, increase yuan loans and expand what is already the biggest network of any foreign bank in China. Companies have raised 56 billion yuan ($8.2 billion) in Shanghai and Shenzhen since a nine-month moratorium on IPOs ended last month.

“Raising yuan in China will help HSBC fund expansion in the loans and credit card markets faster,” said Tat Auyeung, who helps manage $400 million at Apex Capital Management in Hong Kong. “The bank can also take advantage of the higher multiples in China to raise cheap capital.”

Shares in Shanghai typically trade at a premium to those on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The Shanghai Composite Index, which includes 897 Chinese companies listed in the city, is trading at an average of 37.7 times earnings, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 43 Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares, is at 19 times.

Valuations

Shares of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s largest oil refiner, are valued at 18 times in Hong Kong and at a multiple of 44.8 times in Shanghai. Everbright Securities Co. said yesterday it plans to sell shares at 19 yuan to 21.08 yuan apiece, valuing the brokerage at 59 times 2008 earnings.

The Shanghai Composite Index’s 91 percent gain this year compares with a 65 percent plunge in 2008, bolstering confidence that the equity market can withstand added supply of stock. The five companies that went public in China this year jumped an average 112 percent on their first trading day. All sold shares at the top end of the ranges they marketed to investors. China’s investors opened 566,937 stock trading accounts in the week through July 22, the most since the period ended Jan. 18, 2008, according to data from the country’s clearing house. A total of 108,932 new mutual fund accounts were opened, the most since the five days ended Feb. 22, 2008, the data showed.

Overseas Companies

HSBC is not alone in tapping mainland investors. Standard Chartered Plc, the U.K. bank that gets almost all of its profit from emerging markets, said in June it plans to raise as much as 3.5 billion yuan from selling yuan-denominated bonds on the nation’s interbank market.Coca-Cola, GE and Walmart are among U.S. companies that may seek to list on China’s stock exchanges, UBS AG said in a note to clients in June.

China Expansion

HSBC has said it wants to list in China as soon as regulations permit, adding to listings in Hong Kong and London. Selling shares to Chinese investors may help London-based HSBC increase its profile in the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The bank targets 100 outlets in China by year-end, HSBC Chairman Stephen Green said yesterday. It has 87 now, Asia- Pacific Chief Executive Officer Sandy Flockhart said in an interview in Hong Kong today. HSBC yesterday posted an unexpected first-half profit of $3.35 billion as earnings at its securities unit more than doubled. Asia accounted for 52 percent of earnings.

Margins

The proposed mainland listing isn’t aimed at bolstering capital as HSBC already raised $17.8 billion in a rights offering to shore up capital in April, one of the people said. HSBC has seen “significant” pressure on loan margins in the nation as interest rates fall and domestic rivals boost lending, Flockhart said today. Banks in China extended a record $1.1 trillion of loans in the first half as the government encouraged them to support its economic stimulus. The lending spree by domestic banks has added to pressure on loan margins, said Flockhart.

Falling interest rates in China have narrowed the difference between what HSBC can charge for loans in the nation and what it pays on deposits, hurting profitability, Flockhart said. The one-year deposit rate has fallen by 1.89 percentage points from last year’s peak, while the lending rate has declined by 2.16 percentage points. China accounted for about 8 percent of HSBC’s overall revenue in the first half after certain adjustments, he added.


p/s photo: Deborah Priya

Outlook For Asian Currencies For Rest Of 2009



Why is it important to look at currency outlook? If you are investing in stocks or bonds in an emerging country, the outlook for the local currency is very critical. The outlook will sway foreign and institutional investors one way or the other in global capital flows. You will only invest aggressively in things that will go up - currency bullishness becomes a major factor in calculating the absolute returns for foreign and institutional investors. there is not much point if a local stock market returns 12% in a year if the local currency whacks 8% off their net returns. Yes, you can do hedging blah, blah... but the crux is still good confluence of positives when making an asset allocation decision. You do not want to have so many "conflicting variables" in your asset allocation model. Good currency outlook = good equity outlook.


  • YTD Currency performance as of May 4, 2009: Worst-performers-> Singapore (-2.63%), India (-2.47%), Vietnam (-1.69%), Pakistan (-1.69%), Malaysia (-1.67%), Thailand (-1.29%), Philippines (-1.18%), Taiwan (-0.81%), South Korea (-0.02%), HK (-0.01%) Best-performers-> China (+0.05%), Indonesia (+7.86%)
  • In the beginning of 2009, heightened global risk aversion and investor redemption from EMs had led capital outflows from Asia and hence currency depreciation. Since March, however, all major Asian currencies are on an appreciation path with the exception of Vietnam. During March 6- May 4 period, South Korean Won gained from -18.6% ytd to -0.02% ytd and Indonesian Rupiah gained from -5.9% ytd to 7.86% ytd, whereas Vietnamese Dong have lost its value from 0.1% ytd to -1.69% ytd

    Causes
  • Equity fund inflows: diminishing risk aversion among global investors have led continuous FII inflows to Asian equity markets with ytd net flows to a positive $1.6bn in mid-April 2009 and 4-week average as strong as those experienced in 2006 and 2007 (Citi). Attractive valuations, relatively sound economic fundamentals and aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus policies have supported the current rally in equity markets
  • Easing external balances: Asian exports will continue to contract through most of 2009 due to sharp contraction in global demand, however the extent of export drop has been easing since Feb/Mar 2009. Imports contracting greater than exports in some countries is containing risks to the trade deficit
  • Improving liquidity condition: Although it remains tight in some countries, dollar liquidity has improved considerably when compared to Fall 2008. Countries needing dollar liquidity have adequate access to bilateral and Chiangmai currency swap agreements as well as aid from bilateral sources, multilateral agencies and international groups to avoid IMF assistance

    Outlook
  • Risks: in spite of recent currency appreciation path, Asian currencies still face some downward pressures due to easing capital flows. Slowing GDP growth and bleak earnings outlook may drive out FII inflows. Furthermore, FDI has already started to contract due to cutbacks in capex, debt inflows are under pressures because of declining interest rate differentials with the U.S. and external bank borrowings is also waning amid global credit crunch; this may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation. Countries with stronger FDI prospects and/or stronger fiscal and currency account positions are less vulnerable to currency depreciation than their regional peers
  • Central Banks: Increasing number of central banks might favor undervalued currencies to support exports and growth (especially as interest rate cuts are approaching low levels in many countries with the risk of deflation which have been ineffective to stimulate lending and the size of fiscal stimulus is constrained by fiscal deficit). In the face of growing deflationary pressures, currency depreciation might also help to contain deflationary risks by raising import inflation
  • DBS: Asian currencies have been appreciating on the back of rising equities on improving prospects for economic recovery. Most bullish currencies, Chinese Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar, are those where their spot rates have broken below their 100-, 200- and 400-day moving averages. The next most bullish currencies are the Asian NIE currencies (Taiwan Dollar, South Korean Won and Singapore Dollar) by virtue of their high dependence on the external sector for growth. In Southeast Asia, the Malaysian Ringgit and Indonesian Rupiah clearly outperformed the Thai Baht. The Philippine Peso, and to a lesser extent the Indian Rupee, do not appear to be as enthusiastic in embracing appreciation from recovering stocks
  • Asian Development Bank: Although most Asian currencies are expected to recover somewhat over the course of the year, further depreciation is possible in the near term amid continued deleveraging and as weaker exports reduce dollar earnings in the region
  • Nomura: Asia has the highest average fundamental undervaluation based on Flow Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) and Stock Equilibrium Exchange Rate (SEER) of the emerging regions, and this will provide a strong support for Asia FX appreciation when capital flows stabilize
  • Citi: Near-term outlook more mixed as appreciation trend moved faster than expected, and vulnerable to relapse of risk aversion, but longer-term appreciation view maintained
  • Citi: Currency depreciation is expected as Swine Flu outbreaks would have greater proportional impact on non-tradable/services than they would on tradable sectors; one should therefore expect the relative price of non-tradables to fall vis-a-vis tradables, which would imply the real depreciation of one's exchange rate. This should be particularly for small open economies where this relative sectoral shift has a more notable impact
  • Scotia: While the Chinese authorities profess confidence in the economic outlook, they will be willing to countenance only a marginal appreciation of the renminbi vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar in 2009. Despite the rally in the local equity securities market, the appreciation trend in India will not persist with the export outlook relatively bleak and political uncertainties unlikely to be resolved by the election. The Korean Won has been a major beneficiary of the diminished risk aversion among global investors in spite of the persistent weakness in the domestic economy, whereas Thailand's political uncertainties may tend to discourage investment inflows and encourage capital flight although current account surplus provides some support
  • Standard Chartered: Given the fundamentals are solid and growth prospects are bright, KRW, PHP, INR, IDR to lead the rally in AXJ currencies in H2 2009 just as they led the AXJ currency correction in 2008. Small, open economy currencies such as SGD, MYR, TWD,THB, VND will weaken on slowing growth, capital outflows, global recession


p/s photo: Deborah Priya Henry


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